Scattered approach in the Red Sea contributes to instability

Nel Dossier n. 50 Irina Tsukerman descrive i problemi che Iran, Houthi e pirati somali stanno creando negli stretti mediorientali, e quali ostacoli abbiano finora impedito agli altri attori locali e a quelli occidentali di porre rimedio alla situazione.

CLICCA QUI PER SCARICARE IL DOSSIER

SOMMARIO ESECUTIVO

• Although the Iran-Israel crash so far was an isolated incident, it fundamentally changed the expectations for the region, elevating the risk.
• In light of this barrier being crossed, it is more important than ever to find a common solution to securitize the waters in the Middle East.
• The current security problems are costly to both the Western allies present in the region and to the local countries impacted by the Houthi strikes and Iran’s hijacking of vessels.
• Several major obstacles stand in the way of an effective strategy: lack of coordination between several sets of security operations, the unwillingness to confront Iran as the source of the problem, the expansion of the coalition between Russia-China-Iran and regional proxies amidst Great Power.
• Competition, and the increasing dissonance between the US and its Middle Eastern allies, such as Saudi Arabia.
• There are currently four separate responses exploited by Houthis and Iran due to inherent communications problems and divergent political agendas: US-UK strikes, the US-led and largely symbolic defensive coalition, the EU defensive coalition, and India acting as a helpful but separate actor.
• The security problems are compounded by the involvement of third parties such as Somali pirates.
• Unless the countries involved in securing the Red Sea and Indian Ocean develop a common approach, the situation is likely to continue as is, or get worse, disrupting international trade, causing significant financial loss, and benefiting nefarious actors and anti-Western authoritarian regimes.

LEGGILO ONLINE

Irina Tsukerman

Giurista specializzata in diritti umani e sicurezza nazionale, con base a New York. Fellow dell'Arabian Peninsula Institute, è membro di North American Society for Intelligence History, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, American Bar Association, New York City Bar Association, presidente della società di consulenza Scarab Rising, Inc. e direttrice di "The Washington Outsider".

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