Scattered approach in the Red Sea contributes to instability

In Dossier No. 50, Irina Tsukerman describes the problems Iran, Houthis, and Somali pirates are creating in the Middle Eastern straits, and what obstacles have so far prevented other local and Western actors from rectifying the situation.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Although the Iran-Israel crash so far was an isolated incident, it fundamentally changed the expectations for the region, elevating the risk.
• In light of this barrier being crossed, it is more important than ever to find a common solution to securitize the waters in the Middle East.
• The current security problems are costly to both the Western allies present in the region and to the local countries impacted by the Houthi strikes and Iran’s hijacking of vessels.
• Several major obstacles stand in the way of an effective strategy: lack of coordination between several sets of security operations, the unwillingness to confront Iran as the source of the problem, the expansion of the coalition between Russia-China-Iran and regional proxies amidst Great Power.
• Competition, and the increasing dissonance between the US and its Middle Eastern allies, such as Saudi Arabia.
• There are currently four separate responses exploited by Houthis and Iran due to inherent communications problems and divergent political agendas: US-UK strikes, the US-led and largely symbolic defensive coalition, the EU defensive coalition, and India acting as a helpful but separate actor.
• The security problems are compounded by the involvement of third parties such as Somali pirates.
• Unless the countries involved in securing the Red Sea and Indian Ocean develop a common approach, the situation is likely to continue as is, or get worse, disrupting international trade, causing significant financial loss, and benefiting nefarious actors and anti-Western authoritarian regimes.

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Irina Tsukerman

A human rights and national security lawyer based in New York City. A Fellow of the Arabian Peninsula Institute, she is a member of North American Society for Intelligence History, Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, American Bar Association, New York City Bar Association, president of the consulting firm Scarab Rising, Inc. and editor-in-chief of The Washington Outsider.

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